THE JOURNAL OF CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH, 26 October 2018

作者：JAE B.KIM（Lehigh University）

ALEXANDER NEKRASOV（University of Illinois at Chicago）

PERVIN K.SHROFF（University of Minnesota）

ANDREAS SIMON（Pepperdine University）

摘要：我们研究了金融分析师在预测目标价格时是否理解无条件会计稳健性的估值影响。 虽然会计稳健性会影响报告的收益，但保守主义本身并不会对未来现金流的现值产生影响。我们研究了分析师在使用这些预测来估算目标价格时，是否调整其盈利预测中包含的保守主义的影响。我们发现，带符号的目标价格误差（实际值减去预测值）与远期收益的保守程度具有显着的正相关关系，这表明目标价格由于会计稳健性而存在偏差。横截面分析表明，更为成熟的分析师和优秀的长期预测者比其他分析师更大程度地调整保守主义。另外，我们探讨了保守主义导致目标价格偏差的机制。我们首先表明，分析师的盈利预测与保守主义程度呈负相关，即分析师将无条件保守主义的影响纳入其盈利预测。根据分析师可能使用的其他基于收益的估值模型，我们的证据表明，在使用这些预测得出目标价格时，分析师未能适当调整其估值倍数，以了解其盈利预测中包含的保守主义的影响。因此，我们发现，对于保守主义的极端变化，保守主义导致的分析师目标价格偏差扭曲了市场价格。我们的研究结果强调了关于分析师可能不会意识到保守会计会抑制价格发现，从而对估值产生影响的担忧。

关键词：保守主义；估值；分析师目标价格；错误定价

Valuation Implications of Unconditional Accounting Conservatism: Evidence from Analysts' Target Prices

JAE B.KIM（Lehigh University）

ALEXANDER NEKRASOV（University of Illinois at Chicago）

PERVIN K.SHROFF（University of Minnesota）

ANDREAS SIMON（Pepperdine University）

ABSTRACT

We examine whether financial analysts understand the valuation implications of unconditional accounting conservatism when forecasting target prices. While accounting conservatism affects reported earnings, conservatism per se does not have an effect on the present value of future cash flows. We examine whether analysts adjust for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to estimate target prices. We find that signed target price errors (actual minus forecast) have a significant positive association with the degree of conservatism in forward earnings, suggesting that target prices are biased due to accounting conservatism. Cross‐sectional analysis suggests that more sophisticated analysts and superior long‐term forecasters adjust for conservatism to a greater extent than other analysts. In additional analyses, we explore the mechanism through which conservatism leads to bias in target prices. We first show that analysts' earnings forecasts are negatively associated with the degree of conservatism, that is, analysts include the effect of unconditional conservatism in their earnings forecasts. Based on alternative earnings‐based valuation models that analysts may use, our evidence suggests that analysts fail to appropriately adjust their valuation multiple for the effect of conservatism included in their earnings forecasts when using these forecasts to derive target prices. As a consequence, we find that, for extreme changes in conservatism, the bias in analysts' target prices due to conservatism leads to a distortion of market prices. The evidence highlights the concern that analysts may not appreciate the valuation implications of conservative accounting which could inhibit price discovery.

Keywords:Conservatism;Valuation;Analyst Target Price;Mispricing

原文链接：https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1911-3846.12465

翻译：王霄霄