CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH· Volume 34, Issue 1· Spring 2017

预期外盈利正负性不持续的公司：潜在投资者使用计数启发法吗？

作者：Lisa Koonce (The University of Texas at Austin)

Marlys Gascho Lipe (University of South Carolina)

摘要：尽管之前的研究表明公司的表现持续超过盈利预期能够换来市值溢价，但是一些公司的基准业绩的表现并没有持续性，有时候能够超过盈利预期，有时候达不到预期。在这篇文章中，我们报告了针对潜在投资者通过计数分辨基准业绩表现不持续的公司的多重实验的结果。我们的结果强有力地支持了以下假说：投资者通过观察观测时间内公司超过或未达到盈利预期的次数来区分不同的公司。这种基于战胜频率的评判效应会增加公司超过或未达到盈利预期的程度。我们的研究表明市场参与者在这些公司中做出了系统性鉴别，这为那些基准业绩表现不持续的公司的管理者有意义。本文还为文献引入了一种新的理论结构——计数启发法，这对研究者同样有意义。

Firms with Inconsistently Signed Earnings Surprises: Do Potential Investors Use a Counting Heuristic?

Lisa Koonce (The University of Texas at Austin), Marlys Gascho Lipe (University of South Carolina)

ABSTRACT

Although prior research reports that firms that consistently beat their earnings expectations are rewarded with a market-valuation premium, most firms are inconsistent in the sign of their benchmark performance, sometimes missing and sometimes beating. In this paper, we report the results of multiple experiments to test the idea that potential investors, evaluating firms that have inconsistent benchmark performance, use a counting heuristic to discriminate among them. Our results provide strong support for the hypothesis that these investors distinguish among firms by counting the number of beats and misses they experience over an observed time interval. The judgmental effect of this beat-frequency is incremental to the effect of the magnitude of the beats and misses of the benchmark. Our study has implications for firm managers who have inconsistent benchmark performance, suggesting that market participants do make systematic discriminations among such inconsistent firms. It also has implications for researchers by introducing a new theoretical construct to the literature—namely, the counting heuristic.

原文链接：

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12235/full

翻译：吴雨玲