CONTEMPORARY ACCOUNTING RESEARCH· Volume 34, Issue 2· Summer 2017
分析师报道和达到或超过分析师预测的可能性
作者：Shawn X. Huang (Arizona State University, USA), Raynolde Pereira (University of Missouri–Columbia), Changjiang Wang (University of Cincinnati)
摘要：这篇文章检验了分析师报道和公司是否达到或者超过分析师预测的盈利之间的关系。我们将公司季报公布的盈余分为达到分析师预测（等于或者仅超分析师预测盈利一美分）和超过分析预测（超过分析师预测盈利一美分以上）。我们发现分析师预测和公司是否达到或超过分析预测之间存在正相关关系。但分析师预测与达到分析师预测之间的关系更加显著。此外，当我们考虑由券商合并或停业和集团分拆带来的分析师报道的外生性冲击时，我们进一步发现分析师报道与达到分析师预测之间显著的正相关关系。为了阐明其间的因果关系，我们证实了更多的分析报道与市场对突如其来的负盈余的更大反应显著相关。我们还证明了拥有更多分析师报道的公司更可能引导分析师做出业绩下滑的报道。综上所述，我们的证据表明更多的分析师报道增加了经理达到分析师预测的压力。
Analyst Coverage and the Likelihood of Meeting or Beating Analyst Earnings Forecasts
Shawn X. Huang (Arizona State University, USA), Raynolde Pereira (University of Missouri–Columbia), Changjiang Wang (University of Cincinnati)
ABSTRACT
This paper examines the relation between analyst coverage and whether firms meet or beat analyst earnings forecasts. We distinguish between whether a firm's reported quarterly earnings meet (i.e., equal or exceed by one cent) or beat (i.e., exceed by more than one cent) its consensus analyst earnings forecasts. We find a positive relation between analyst coverage and whether a firm meets or beats analyst forecasts. However, the more pronounced relation is that between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. Also, when we consider exogenous shocks to analyst coverage due to brokerage mergers or closures and conglomerate spinoffs, we continue to find a robust positive relation only between analyst coverage and meeting analyst forecasts. To shed light on the causal relation involved, we examine and find that greater analyst coverage is associated with a significantly larger market reaction to negative earnings surprises. We also document that firms with greater analyst coverage are more likely to guide analyst earnings forecasts downwards. Taken together, our evidence suggests that greater analyst coverage raises the pressure on managers to meet analyst earnings forecasts.
原文链接：
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12289/full
翻译：吴雨玲
