Contemporary Accounting Research, Volume 33, Issue 4，Pages 1331–1749，2016

CEO过度自信和股票价格暴跌风险

作者：JB Kim (University of Waterloo), Z Wang (City University of Hong Kong), L Zhang (City University of Hong Kong)

摘要：本研究探讨首席执行官（CEO）过度自信与未来股票价格崩溃风险之间的关联性。过度自信的管理者通常高估其投资项目的回报率，并将净现值（NPV）为负的项目错看为价值创造。他们也常常忽略或为私下观察到的负面反馈辩解。结果造成负净现值的项目被保留过久，糟糕的业绩不断积累，从而导致股票价格崩溃。通过1993–2010年间的大量企业样本，我们发现拥有过度自信CEO的公司比拥有非过度自信CEO的公司股票价格崩溃的风险更高。当CEO在高管团队中更具支配权或者投资者之间意见分歧更大时，管理上的过度自信对崩盘风险的影响更加显著。最后，研究还表明：对于会计政策较为保守的公司来说，CEO过度自信对崩盘风险的作用较为不显著。

关键词：过度自信；乐观；暴跌风险；保守主义

CEO Overconfidence and Stock Price Crash Risk

JB Kim (University of Waterloo), Z Wang (City University of Hong Kong), L Zhang (City University of Hong Kong)

ABSTRACT

This study examines the association between chief executive officer (CEO) overconfidence and future stock price crash risk. Overconfident managers overestimate the returns to their investment projects and misperceive negative net present value (NPV) projects as value creating. They also tend to ignore or explain away privately observed negative feedback. As a result, negative NPV projects are kept for too long and their bad performance accumulates, which can lead to stock price crashes. Using a large sample of firms for the period 1993–2010, we find that firms with overconfident CEOs have higher stock price crash risk than firms with non-overconfident CEOs. The impact of managerial overconfidence on crash risk is more pronounced when the CEO is more dominant in the top management team and when there are greater differences of opinion among investors. Finally, it appears that the effect of CEO overconfidence on crash risk is less pronounced for firms with more conservative accounting policies.

Keywords: Overconfidence, optimism, crash risk, conservatism

原文链接：http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1911-3846.12217/full#care12217-note-0001

翻译：黄涛