Review of Accounting Studies · 12 May 2017

基于风险的预测、规划和管理盈利预测

作者：Christopher D. Ittner (University of Pennsylvania), Jeremy Michels (University of Pennsylvania)

摘要：本研究探讨了企业内部信息环境与对外披露的管理盈余预测的准确性之间的关系。在内部，公司使用预测来规划具有不确定性的未来。风险管理文献认为，将风险相关的信息纳入预测和规划中可以提高公司预测财务结果的能力。我们调查这种内部信息是否体现在外部收益指导的准确性上。利用美国上市公司的详细调查数据和公开披露的管理盈余预测，我们发现，更为复杂的基于风险的预测和规划过程与较小的收益预测误差以及较窄的预测宽度相关。这些联系通过各种不同的规划视野（从年度预算到长期战略规划），为内部信息质量和外部披露质量之间的理论联系提供了实证支持。

关键词：管理盈利指导，预算，规划，预测，风险管理

Risk-based forecasting and planning and management earnings forecasts

Christopher D. Ittner (University of Pennsylvania), Jeremy Michels (University of Pennsylvania)

ABSTRACT

This study examines the association between a firm’s internal information environment and the accuracy of its externally disclosed management earnings forecasts. Internally, firms use forecasts to plan for uncertain futures. The risk management literature argues that integrating risk-related information into forecasts and plans can improve a firm’s ability to forecast financial outcomes. We investigate whether this internal information manifests itself in the accuracy of external earnings guidance. Using detailed survey data and publicly disclosed management earnings forecasts from a sample of publicly traded U.S. companies, we find that more sophisticated risk-based forecasting and planning processes are associated with smaller earnings forecast errors and narrower forecast widths. These associations hold across a variety of different planning horizons (ranging from annual budgeting to long-term strategic planning), providing empirical support for the theoretical link between internal information quality and the quality of external disclosures.

Keywords: Management earnings guidance，Budgeting，Planning，Forecasting，Risk management

原文链接：

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11142-017-9396-0

翻译：黄涛