Review of Accounting Studies· Volume 20, Issue?4, · December 2015

应计项目与未来业绩：是否可以归因于风险？

作者：Francesco Momente (Bocconi University), Francesco Reggiani (Bocconi University), Scott Richardson (London Business School)

摘要：我们把应计项目的广义测算分解为公司特有的和相关公司的因素。我们发现，应计项目和公司的未来业绩之间的负相关关系几乎完全归因于公司特有部分。另外，标准的基于风险的解释对这一事实的解释能力有限。一定程度上，预期收益率会受一个共同因子的影响，这个因子涉及到相关的公司。在相关公司同样发生了增长的情况下，基于风险的解释将会反应出更强的应计项目和未来公司业绩之间的负相关关系。相反，我们所记录的弱关系更可能归因于次优的投资决策，及股市和分析师们的不及时行动。

关键词：投资活动，应计项目，盈利能力，股票收益率，供应链

Accruals and future performance: Can it be attributed to risk?

Francesco Momente (Bocconi University), Francesco Reggiani (Bocconi University), Scott Richardson (London Business School)

ABSTRACT

We decompose broad-based measures of accruals into firm-specific and related-firm components. We find that the negative relation between accruals and future firm performance is almost entirely attributable to the firm-specific component. Standard risk-based explanations are hard to reconcile with this fact. To the extent expected returns have a common component spanning related firms, a risk-based explanation would suggest a stronger negative relation between accruals and future firm performance when related firms are also growing. Instead, the attenuation we document is more likely attributable to suboptimal investment decisions, which the stock market and analysts do not incorporate in a timely manner.

Keywords: Investment activity，Accruals，Profitability，Stock returns，Supply chain

原文链接：

https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11142-015-9319-x

翻译：黄涛